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Chapter 1 · Plan

The SF market right now

8 min read Facts verified Oct 6, 2026
Sutro Tower silhouetted against an orange sunset sky above hillside neighborhoods, with house lights coming onGriffin Wooldridge / Pexels

If you're thinking about buying in San Francisco, this chapter gives you a clear picture of the market you're walking into: what homes are selling for, why prices keep climbing, and what that means for your own budget and timing.

The short version is a little strange. In fall 2026, mortgage rates are at a three-year high, and houses still sell for about a quarter over asking. Part of the reason is who's buying: a large share of buyers are paying with stock and investment money rather than their paychecks.

The short version

  • The SF single-family median was $1.855M in August 2026, up ~24% year over year. Condos/TICs: $1.225M, up ~20%.
  • 86% of houses sold over asking, at an average 124% of list. In SF, the list price is set to draw buyers in, so don't read it as what the home will sell for.
  • Inventory is the story: only 131 houses on the market at the end of August (−28% YoY). Fewer sales, more bidders per sale.
  • Rates went the "wrong" way: Freddie Mac's 30-year average hit 7.28% on Oct 1, 2026, and 30-year jumbos are running ~7.5–7.7%.
  • AI liquidity (OpenAI's $7B tender, Anthropic's reported IPO, SpaceX lockup releases) is the demand engine. Money that never touched a paycheck is setting prices.
  • The fight is fiercest in the $1.5M–$3.5M single-family house band on the west side, and quieter (relatively) in downtown condos and above $5M.

A few terms you'll see throughout: the median is the middle sale price (half sold for more, half for less). YoY means year over year. A TIC (tenancy-in-common) is a shared-ownership building where each owner holds a percentage of the whole property. A jumbo loan is a mortgage too big for the standard government-backed limits, which covers most SF purchases.

The headline numbers

SF house median

$1.855M

Aug 2026 sales, +23.7% YoY

Condo/TIC median

$1.225M

Aug 2026, +20.1% YoY

Avg % of list (houses)

124.1%

86.4% sold over asking

House inventory

131

End of Aug 2026, −28.4% YoY

30-yr fixed (Freddie Mac)

7.28%

Oct 1, 2026; highest since Nov 2023

30-yr jumbo (daily index)

~7.6%

Oct 5, 2026; varies 7.5–7.7% by survey

These figures come from the MLS (the shared listings database agents use), as reported by the San Francisco Association of Realtors (SFAR) in early-September market reports covering August closings. Different brokerages slice the same month differently. One report lists 21 days on market for houses; another says 13. The medians agree, though, and the medians are what matter for your budget.

Bidding wars are back, and bigger than 2021

The 2021 frenzy looked tame next to the first half of 2026. 144 SF homes sold for $1M or more over asking in H1 2026, up from 2 in H1 2024, and 44 of them were in June alone (SF Standard). A couple of eye-popping sales got a lot of attention:

PropertyAskingSoldOverbid
Unnamed SF home (May 2026)$7.95M$15.0M+89%
2512 Union St, Cow Hollow$8.0M~2× ask~+100%
Typical SF house (Aug 2026)——+24% avg

The typical sale tells you more than the headline ones. If a Noe Valley house lists at $2.4M and the neighborhood is running at 120–125% of list, plan on a $2.9–3.0M sale. In SF, sellers usually price low and set an offer date 7–14 days out, so the house sells in something like a small auction. That pattern only fades above ~$5M, where buyers negotiate the price down more often. More in Winning an offer in SF.

Where the competition is hottest

District-level house medians for the 12 months to mid-July 2026 (SF MLS via Vanguard's Team K.Ho):

MLS districtRepresentative neighborhoodsHouse median
D10Bayview, Excelsior, Visitacion Valley, Portola$1,124,000
D3Ingleside, Lakeshore, Merced Heights$1,400,000
D2Sunset, Parkside, Golden Gate Heights$1,800,000
D9Bernal, Mission, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch$1,800,000
D4West Portal, Forest Hill, St. Francis Wood$2,245,000
D1Richmond, Sea Cliff, Lake St$2,488,000
D5Noe, Eureka Valley, Cole Valley, Glen Park$2,800,000
D6Hayes Valley, NoPa, Alamo Square$3,435,000
D8Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill$4,237,500
D7Pac Heights, Presidio Heights, Marina, Cow Hollow$6,350,000

What surprises most people about that analysis: the expensive districts are the calm ones. The real fight is west of Twin Peaks and out in the Avenues. Mid-priced single-family houses in the Sunset, Richmond, Bernal and Glen Park draw the most bidders, because that's where a $600k–$1M down payment plus a jumbo loan lands. At $6M+, fewer buyers qualify and prices are more negotiable. Even so, 2026 produced record $5M+ house sales (22 in March, +83% YoY).

Condos are a different market. Downtown inventory (SoMa, Rincon Hill, South Beach, FiDi) still lags. South Beach condo prices were reported down ~10% YoY even as citywide condo medians rose. Mission Bay, which sits next to OpenAI's offices, is the exception: its median rose to about $1.35M in spring 2026 from $1.17M a year earlier. Under $1M, condos carry about 8 months of inventory, so buyers there have more time and more bargaining power. See Neighborhoods by budget for the block-level view.

Why prices rose while rates rose

Normally, mortgage rates above 7% cool prices. San Francisco hasn't followed that pattern, for three reasons.

1. Many buyers aren't sensitive to rates. When the down payment comes from a $2M tender payout (a company buying back shares from its employees), a half-point (50 basis point) rate move changes the monthly payment, not whether the deal happens. Many winning offers are all-cash, paid for with a loan against a stock portfolio and refinanced into a mortgage later (see Turning equity into a down payment).

2. Big stock payouts land at the same time, in the same place. The 2026 calendar so far:

DateEventStatus
Feb–Apr 2026Anthropic employee tender at $350B pre-moneyClosed; employees reportedly sold less than expected
Mar 2026OpenAI primary round at $852BClosed
Jun 1, 2026Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1Confirmed by Anthropic
Jun 12, 2026SpaceX IPO; staggered employee lockup releases Aug–DecPublic
Aug 2026OpenAI ~$7B employee tender at $852BClosed
Mid/late Nov 2026Anthropic Nasdaq IPOReported (WSJ/Reuters), not confirmed by the company as of Oct 6, 2026
2027OpenAI IPOReported to have slipped to 2027

An S-1 is the filing a company makes before going public. A lockup is the period after an IPO when employees can't sell their shares yet. Agents report buyers timing purchases around these payouts and lockup expirations. People at companies that haven't gone public yet often try to buy before the IPO, expecting new wealth to push prices up further.

3. Few people are selling. Owners with 3% mortgages and low property taxes locked in under Prop 13 (which caps how fast an owner's tax bill can grow) have little reason to move. August house closings were down 35% YoY in one report (150 vs. 232) and down 9% in another. Either way, sales fell because there weren't enough homes for sale, not because buyers lost interest.

Rates: higher, and not obviously coming down

ProductRateAs of
30-yr fixed, Freddie Mac PMMS7.28%Oct 1, 2026 (prior week 7.03%; a year ago 6.34%)
15-yr fixed, PMMS6.60%Oct 1, 2026
30-yr conforming, daily indices~7.5–7.6%Oct 5–6, 2026
30-yr jumbo, daily indices~7.54–7.70%Oct 5–6, 2026
10/6 SOFR ARM, jumbo~6.88%Late Sept 2026

PMMS is Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. A "conforming" loan fits under the standard loan limits; a jumbo doesn't. An ARM (adjustable-rate mortgage) has a rate that can change over time. A 10/6 ARM is fixed for 10 years, then adjusts every 6 months, based on an index called SOFR. All of these are national averages. Nobody publishes an SF-only rate, and SF jumbo borrowers may be quoted differently depending on the lender, the loan size and how much money they keep with the bank.

The 10-year Treasury pushed past 5.3% in Q3 2026 after its largest quarterly surge since 1994. Energy-price inflation, worries about the federal deficit, and markets betting on a possible Fed rate hike in December drove the move. Earlier in 2026, jumbo rates were in the low-to-mid 6s. A 1.3-point swing in six months on a $2.4M loan is about $2,000/month.

You may hear "marry the house, date the rate," meaning buy now and refinance later. That's a bet, and it may not pay off. If you're counting on refinancing to 6% in 2027, run your numbers at today's rate and treat any refinance as a bonus. Mortgages for tech buyers covers ARMs, interest-only loans and relationship pricing (discounts for keeping assets with your lender), which can take 0.25–0.75 points off the averages above.

What could slow things down

  • Rates above 7% are squeezing buyers who rely on salary. Expect fewer buyers at the margin, especially for condos.
  • IPOs could slip. Neither the Anthropic nor the OpenAI dates are confirmed by the companies. A delayed IPO, or one that prices lower than hoped, would remove a lot of expected demand. Stock prices also bake in a lot of optimism, and lockups can end while a stock is falling.
  • "The median moved down. Competition moved up." That was Vanguard's summary of August. The house median slipped from its June peak while the share selling over asking rose. That looks like prices leveling off while demand stays strong.
  • Policy changes. The SF Family Zoning Plan (passed Dec 2025, under legal challenge) allows taller buildings along west-side corridors. A proposed transfer-tax cut on $10M+ sales was paused in June 2026. Prop J on the Nov 3, 2026 ballot affects foreclosure transfer-tax exemptions only.

What this means for you

  • Budget using sold $/sq ft and recent overbid percentages for your target neighborhood, not list prices.
  • Get a fully underwritten loan approval (the lender has actually checked your finances, not just a quick pre-qualification) before touring seriously. Offers with no contingencies are the norm.
  • Have your down payment in cash, or a loan against your investments set up, before offer day. Stock sale proceeds need time to settle and sit in your account.
  • Check that you could handle the payment at today's ~7.6% jumbo rate. Treat a future refinance as a bonus.
  • Decide your walk-away number before the offer date, and write it down.
  • If your company has a stock payout coming, think about timing relative to your coworkers.

Next: How much home can you afford?

Sources & verification›